Some Reflections on the Attacks on the Euro

We have analysed elsewhere the underlying cause of the exponential growth in sovereign debt over recent years, whilst most recently focussing in particular on the financial crisis. Now let's concentrate on the underlying causes of the attack on the sovereign debt of euro zone countries.

According to the "received wisdom" this is due to the so-called financial markets getting rid of (selling) government securities of the euro zone countries in the wake of their own speculative activities. Now these markets are set on disengaging from economically weak countries they do not trust, those which are in danger of defaulting, which are unable to guarantee their debts or the interest to be paid to the speculators. It all began with the bonds of Ireland, Portugal and Greece. Then it moved to Spain and Italy, so that even the triple-A rating of many European banks, including the rich and powerful Bundesbank, were cut.

As is well known, it is the international rating agencies who decide on the creditworthiness of banks, on the soundness of various national economies and the trustworthiness of government bonds. The three who play a primary, if not absolute, role are: Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch, who hold 90% of the market. All three are American and as we will see, are significantly tied up with the USA both in terms of their financial interdependence with the U.S. and in terms of their financial market operations.

Clearly the markets (ten large financial institutions) are doing their dirty job. It stems from capitalism’s own logic that more or less significant portions of capital become detached from the activity of real production to participate in speculation, or rather the acquisition of surplus value without producing anything. During economic crises this parasitic process continues until it detonates like a bomb. Their operational guidelines are dictated by the search for easy capital gains, in the quickest and safest way possible. This is their role, to make immense returns, so long as the game lasts. They have to answer to their shareholders and other corporate demands. They move with the speed of neutrinos, are absolutely without scruple, are prepared to bankrupt entire economies and to condemn millions of workers and their families to misery, in pursuit of their own interests, as indeed is happening dramatically. So the ratings agencies have to do their job well (as third elements to ensure the quality and reliability of the bodies judged). Here, though, the argument becomes more complicated. The "Triad" or the "Three Sisters", as the three major agencies are familiarly termed, should be impartial bodies who issue their judgments based on scientific analysis and reliable statistics. They can be mistaken by a few thousand dollars, some of their predictions may be wrong, but this does not mean that some sort of logical and ethical behaviour follows.

Even the most inattentive observer will have noticed that on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis the "Triad" continued to give top rating, that is the absolutely most reliable score of three As to AIG, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs right up to five minutes before the collapse of these companies. Were they not even minimally aware of the incipient sub-prime crisis, the toxic assets of these banks in America and beyond, in financial institutions across the world, the extent of which was not yet officially recognised, but of enormous size? Inattention? Possibly, but difficult to believe. Corruption? Easier to accept and according to many players in this game it almost certainly played a part. International financial instruments in operation? Exactly so. This is consistent with the latest developments in the financial world.

To the same observer, on the other hand, it will not go unnoticed that the identical "Triad" has not missed a shot in the heavily negative ratings on the sovereign debt of countries in the euro or the grading of their bonds. In quick succession, the downgrading of securities has affected virtually all the euro countries, including Germany. Not only that, but the same verdict has not been pronounced for countries whose economies are in a worse condition, which have much higher levels of public debt and, by implication, whose bonds are at least as unreliable, if not worse; plus the aggravating circumstance of also having, in addition to public debt, the liabilities of families and businesses. Added together, this makes the UK and especially the U.S the most indebted countries in the world, even if in the latter case — and more to throw dust in the eyes of international public opinion than for any other reason — there was a timid downgrade, immediately withdrawn with apologies after the protests of the U.S. government. In addition, it should be underlined how the "Triad" suffers the most obvious conflict of interest. Many of the financial institutions, pension funds, investment banks and hedge funds that are supposed to be controlled, are shareholders in the agencies who themselves handle large blocks of shares which, subject to certain exceptions, all relate to Wall Street, and its single financial asset, the "dollar system". In this case too it’s worth questioning and checking the answers of these agencies. To which we can already hear the chorus of the ultra-conservatives: "It’s the usual conspiracy theory." But these gentlemen forget that the conspirator is the one who constructs the plot and not the one who denounces it.

In this regard, it is worth quoting an article from The Wall Street Journal, reported by Stefania Limiti entitled "U.S. Attack on Europe," 8 February 2010, in the midst of its own financial storm caused by the collapse of American finance . In the text we read of a meeting held on the premises of a small and unknown merchant bank (Monnes, Crespi and Hardt), which was attended by senior figures in the American financial world, including the well-known financier George Soros. Obviously we do not have a transcript, but according to The Wall Street Journal it is well-known that at that meeting they discussed the means best suited to stop the growing influence of the euro on the financial markets and international trade, how to revive the precarious situation of the dollar, whose role as safe haven and value as the prime international currency was being eroded by the day. The terror this struck in the minds and wallets of American financial operators was initially due to the distinct possibility that, in the negative wake of the sub-prime crisis, international speculators, central banks and some hedge funds would not altogether follow the fate of the American economy and that a wave of dollar sales could be kicked off, further depressing the value and role of the U.S. currency. If this had happened it would have been catastrophic for Wall Street, itself already on the brink of collapse. Even if the noted and assiduous rating agencies had moved "autonomously" against the euro they were still in the service of the assets of Washington. Even had they moved in due course to pronounce on U.S. financial entities they would not have wanted to compromise the Federal Reserve and so President Obama would still be able to declare himself, as indeed he shrewdly did, seriously concerned about the fate of the euro and to be doing his utmost to prevent its failure.

Even if the Wall Street Journal, that faithful promoter of the interests of American finance, lied and invented the story of the meeting of Soros and company, something we very much doubt, the fact remains that the real "Triad "has very quickly identified the euro area as the one to hit, focusing on their sovereign debt, the value of their bonds, playing on the downside. They have concentrated on all the "sensitive targets" from Lisbon to Berlin, running through the whole euro area, Belgium and Hungary included, without even touching on Britain, the U.S.A. or all those countries of the dollar zone which have equally bankrupt accounts, if not worse, in terms of the level of national debt and an inability to stage an economic recovery. The goal is to regain the prestige the dollar had a few years ago, to put it back in a position to act as a siphon to draw off surplus value produced elsewhere, to return to being the international reference point for all currencies as it was before the euro first burst onto the scene and before this financial crisis where the American economy and American finance have been both the cause and the victims. In other words, on that eighth of February 2010, there was discussion about how to export for the umpteenth time the consequences of the crisis in the international financial markets, how to operate on the periphery of the euro in order to go on to hit the heart.

As with all the crises of the capitalist economic system, this, which is the largest and deepest since World War II, is redefining imperialist relations on an international scale. In this case, it is the turn of the financial markets to be the scene of a fierce battle, no holds barred, a battle whose "side effects" end up falling on the real economy, the one made of goods, production and wage labour. The real drama is not on the field where piles of fictitious capital remain in the form of billions of dollars or euros burned within a few months, what really matters is that within and behind these ruins are piled the misery of millions of working class families who are now called upon to pay the price of this crisis, and who tomorrow will be co-opted into some other slaughter on a far more tragic social scale.

Fabio Damen, Internationalist Communist Tendency