UAE Quits OPEC

The historic decision by the UAE to leave OPEC has added more tension to an already critical international situation. Prompted by the war between the US and Iran, this decision became unavoidable in the wake of Iran's bombing of territories hosting American military bases. It presents an historic opportunity to redefine the balance of power with all the exporting countries in the energy sector, including Saudi Arabia itself, which has recently suspended the US military’s ability to use its bases and has even banned US fighter jets from using its airspace.

A narrative has circulated that the Emirates’ exit from OPEC was somehow facilitated by Trump himself, in order to weaken the oil cartel that was formed in 1960 (initially to escape the dictatorship of the so-called Seven Sisters) and gain influence on Russian oil exports. Finally, it’s claimed that this is a way to strengthen the Abraham Accords. If this were the case, we would be witnessing yet another strategic error by the compulsive liar from Mar-a-Lago. First, because the move would still allow the export of Russian oil and gas to China, India, and Pakistan via Asian overland pipelines, bypassing the Caspian Sea. This is already happening and is set to intensify, given the cost of American oil, which is five times higher than Russian oil, and considering the free passage granted to Chinese ships. Second, the UAE’s exit from OPEC has the dual purpose of selling and producing their oil without pressure or constraints within the cartel and, above all, of trading in currencies other than the dollar, particularly the stronger ones such as the yen, yuan, euro, rupee, and ruble. Moreover, the Emirates are discussing whether to renew concessions on the American military bases that Iranian bombings have destroyed, causing serious damage to the civilian population. According to a Washington Post analysis, “Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites across the Middle East since the war began, hitting hangars, barracks, fuel depots, aircraft and key radar, communications and air defense equipment … The amount of destruction is far larger than what has been publicly acknowledged by the U.S. government or previously reported.” (washingtonpost.com)

In short, the narrative has turned into exactly the opposite that Trump wanted to play to the entire world, with the aggravating factor of further straining relations between the US, Israel, and the rest of the world, including former allies. So for now there is the stalemate of a false truce. The delegations in Islamabad keep going, while the three contenders accuse and attack each other.

Meanwhile, the economic crisis continues to do its worst, both in the Strait of Hormuz and in Gaza, where, amid bombings, epidemics, deaths from hunger and thirst, ethnic cleansing continues unabated, as does the attempt to annex the West Bank to the state of Israel, driving the Palestinian population out of the land. Meanwhile, amid missiles and civilian deaths, the “safe” zone conquered in Lebanon now stretches far beyond the Litani River. At the same time, negotiations in Islamabad are dragging on without result, with Trump calling Iran's response to the new 14-point American proposal "totally unacceptable”. “We will never bow our heads before the enemy”, declared President Masoud Pezeshkian, emphasising that “if talk of dialogue or negotiation arises, it does not mean surrender or retreat. Rather, the goal is to uphold the rights of the Iranian nation and to defend national interests with resolute strength”. (eu.usatoday.com)

Perhaps the real decisions will be made at the upcoming Beijing Summit, the long-planned meeting between Trump and Xi which was postponed last month. On the table will certainly be the Iranian question, the Middle East disaster, and the violations of international law that Xi will invoke to justify his claims on Taiwan (you're in Venezuela, the Middle East, and Iran, and I'm not in Taiwan?). There will be discussions about tariffs, trade agreements, and the oil crisis triggered by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, as a prelude to the most serious tensions (Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific), which pit the two major imperialisms against each other. That is, the struggle for who, by hook or by crook, will gain the right to manage global supremacy.

The Beijing Summit

As scheduled (13-14 May 2026), the Summit took place.

Uncharacteristically Trump adopted a sheepish posture. China's number one enemy addressed Xi with a deference and humility that is not his trademark. “We must be partners, not rivals” and, with greater emphasis, as if performing a mafia comedy on a New York stage, he added: “It's an honor to be your friend”. The reasons for such hypocrisy stem from two considerations that the American president cannot ignore. The first is that he cannot afford to raise his voice with China, or else his Asian mission will be completely unsuccessful. The second condition is that he is starting from a negotiating position of extreme weakness vis-à-vis his mortal adversary. The crisis of the war with Iran threatens to bog the US down in a dead-end situation. The American economy is in tatters and the tycoon must, at all costs, return home with some semblance of a diplomatic "victory" or risk losing the midterm elections, already severely compromised by his bizarre domestic and international political actions. So much promise, so little delivery. Trump has demanded that China work to lift the naval blockade imposed by Iran as a reply to the attacks it has received from the counter-blockade by the US itself. This is a paradoxical request, considering that it was Trump's intention to create the crisis with Iran, which in turn retaliated against US bases in the Gulf countries and the ensuing oil crisis has in turn affected China's own energy supplies; paradoxical that he is turning to Beijing to find a solution to the damage caused by the US. Trump’s second request was to help prevent the Ayatollah regime from acquiring the atomic bomb and to immediately hand over the uranium held by Iranian scientists and technicians to the "future Nobel Peace Prize laureate". To complete the deal, the White House incumbent also asked Xi not to finance or arm the Pasdaran army (Islamic Revolutionary Guards) as a condition for reaching a peace agreement. Beijing responded that it has always supported peacekeeping and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; that it condemns Iran's violation of international law and would be willing to cease aid to Tehran on the condition that the US stops arming Taiwan. The latest, but not yet implemented, planned arms supply to Taiwan is reportedly worth $14 billion.

Another point Trump was keen to stress was the resumption of trade between the two powers. This included a request for Beijing to complete the purchase of 200 American Boeings (the original hope was for 500) and to resume importing surplus soybeans and wheat from crops in the southern United States, as well as beef. Furthermore, with a tariff policy in fragments, Trump advanced the request for access to purchase some of those strategic rare earths of which China holds a near monopoly (70%) of global production and which are fundamental to the civil and military technological development of the asphyxiated American economy. China will decide whether or not to grant these requests depending on the outcome of the talks.

Meanwhile Xi noted the points presented by Trump, but shifted the meeting's agenda more towards the political terrain, denouncing Trump and Netanyahu's irresponsibility in the Middle East where the slaughter continues, despite the supposed truce. The Chinese President repeatedly recalled the violations of international law with the sole purpose of introducing the real "focus" of the Beijing Summit, namely the Taiwan question. This issue does not only concern the island's annexation by mainland China, it also concerns Taipei's semiconductor monopoly, it concerns the military and commercial dominance of the entire Indo-Pacific, and thus pertains to the real clash between the two imperialisms in the Asian arena. And on this, XI was clear: “If [the Taiwan issue is] handled poorly, the two countries could collide or even enter into conflict, pushing the entire China-U.S. relationship into an extremely dangerous place”. (reuters.com) This, and nothing else, was the true focus of the Summit. Peace with Iran, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the Ayatollahs’ nuclear programme, trade agreements — all important aspects, but they are merely the contingent and instrumental screen behind which looms the spectre of the final clash between the two imperialisms. For now, the outcome of the Beijing Summit is a package of precarious agreements and false promises under a leaden sky that does not presage anything good. Trump, as usual, claimed victory, spoke of a fruitful meeting, but in fact returned from Beijing with little to show and only one certainty: the Chinese enemy has threatened the US not to interfere in the Taiwan issue, under penalty of direct conflict.

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