Until at least the middle of the next decade, global growth is likely to slow to approximately 3 percent per year on average–a rate somewhat below the average of the last two decades. A recovery in advanced economies will be more than offset by a gradual slowdown in emerging ones as they mature, with the net result that global growth will slow. But the biggest risk ahead for the global economy is not this slower overall growth in output but a slowdown in average output per capita, which will determine how fast living standards can be supported and raised.

conference-board.org

The World Bank’s forecasts of world economic growth (Jan 2012) has been “significantly downgraded” from its previous assessment six months ago. It now expected the global economy to expand by only 2.5 percent and 3.1 percent in 2012 and 2013, compared to the previous prediction of 3.6 percent for both years. Any rate below 3 percent is generally considered to be a recession for the world economy as a whole. Europe was now in a recession and growth in high-income countries was expected to be only 1.4 percent. Even these weak results may not be achieved.