As Trump takes office, announcing America’s “rightful” undisputed place at the top of the imperialist world order is under threat, the Doomsday Clock moves ever closer to midnight. Despite all the talk of “peace” and “hope” in the Middle East the battlelines continue to shift. As ever, workers have little to celebrate in this latest turn.

The Anti-US Imperialists’ Defeat In Syria

The most dramatic recent shift took place in Syria in December. After 54 years of the Assad family’s anti-Western, and also anti-working class, rule in Syria, Turkish-backed opposition forces toppled the regime in just over a week. Back in 2011 the Arab Spring had resulted in populist movements successfully deposing their heads of state. However in Syria, Assad responded to the chant of “the people want the fall of the regime” with massacres in the streets. The intervention of other powers (notably Qatar and Saudi Arabia) who armed and financed different jihadist forces turned a popular uprising into a civil war. Assad lost control of much of Syria but was able to hold on and recover thanks to Russia and Iran. The Syrian Civil War became another imperialist proxy war fought on Middle Eastern soil caught between the interests of Russia and the US.

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, a militia with roots in both ISIS and Al-Qaeda, now constitute an indefinitely transitional government, with Ahmed al-Sharaa as Prime Minister. HTS had been designated as a terrorist organisation by the UK, US, EU, Canada, and Turkey, but consistency plays no part in imperialist strategy. Already British, French, German, and Turkish diplomats have visited the new government. The US has lifted the bounty from al-Sharaa’s head and is also in conversation with the new government. Yesterday’s “terrorist” is today’s “freedom fighter”.

But the agony of the civilian population in Syria is not over. Kurds are in a particularly precarious position. While negotiations, encouraged by the US, are ongoing, territorial battles are still taking place in parts of eastern Syria where the Kurdish dominated SDF is trying to hold on to its autonomous oil-producing regions. The HTS government as a Turkish puppet aims to destroy the Kurdish autonomous region in Syria (aka Rojava). The US uses the Kurdish SDF to prevent oil wells falling into the hands of either Iran or ISIS which is why it has a military base in Kurdish territory. With Iran gone, the fate of the Kurds in Northern Syria will be a political football between the US and Turkey.

Indeed it was the withdrawal of troops of Iran’s ally Hezbollah following Israel's assaults on it in Lebanon that started the collapse of Assad’s regime. Israel lost no time when Assad fled. It scrapped the 1974 border agreement and moved forces into the former ceasefire zone in the Golan Heights, destroying Syria’s weaponry and air defences at the same time to ensure that any government that does emerge in Syria will be no future threat.

Israel and the US are rejoicing in their success. Iran has lost the main supply route to Hezbollah and with Hamas decimated (but not destroyed) its “axis of resistance” against Israel is on life support. Russia too could lose its bases in Syria. This would not only weaken its presence in the Mediterranean but also its imperial reach in Africa since it is from Syria’s Tartus that it supplies military equipment to Libya, the Central African Republic and other Sahelian countries.

“Ceasefire” in Gaza

Further south, hostages in Gaza and prisoners in Israel are released to the unimaginable joy of their parents. Briefly forgotten are the tens and tens of thousands who do not make it back into their parents’ arms. Even in the final days of ceasefire negotiations, Israeli forces were killing Gazans. This is not humanitarian peace-building but temporary restraint. Israel’s gross daily massacres of the Gazans, mass displacement, and blockades on aid, weren’t ideal for the US and Western powers, who prefer to look like liberal “democracies” compared to “totalitarian” China, “fundamentalist” Iran and “warmongering” Russia. The US often justifies its imperialism through institutions of “international law”. Now, some of these same institutions are at odds with Netanyahu who has been accused of war crimes – but the US can’t do without Israel, its strongest bastion in the Middle East. Without its costume of world policeman of democratic justice, US support for Israel can hardly be seen as anything other than a product of its imperialist interests. The ceasefire is a sham. The pro-Palestinian movement, which for months has been calling for a ceasefire, must surely be asking itself if this “win” is really much of a “peace” at all.

The early stages of the ceasefire mostly revolve around hostage and prisoner releases – the perfect chance for Netanyahu to try and regain some of his electoral popularity (mass demonstrations from within Israel during the war have always had hostage releases as a central demand). The younger brother Sinwar has used the publicity of hostage releases to display the strong support for Hamas still alive in Gaza. According to outside sources, Hamas have been recruiting at such a pace that operatives killed by Israel have already been replaced. Eventually, the ceasefire demands included permitting aid to Gaza, partial withdrawal of Israeli troops, an end to the blockade, and for Hamas not to rebuild its military. Even the most gullible of optimists must doubt whether Netanyahu, Sinwar, or indeed Trump, intend to see this out.

Socialism or More Barbarism

No victory has been won for the working-class in the Middle East or anywhere else. As the global economic crisis of capitalism intensifies the imperialist camps are realigning and ironing out some creases. For the time being, these events look like positive results for Western imperialism. With the fall of Assad, Russia and Iran are both weakened. And, at the time of writing, the US’ oil zones remain intact. The ceasefire has slightly reined Israel back under US control. But the situation really allows a calm footing for all parties to rebuild, restrategise, and hold some quiet international negotiations before the next round of imperialist destruction. For us, victory never looked like a US-brokered ceasefire, or a military ousting of a dictator. For us, victory will only be won in the class war that ends all wars. Palestinians will only be free when all workers around the world are free. And to this end, the working class must become an independent social force that sides with no national flags or imperialist camps. Our interest is in a total restructuring of society in which the abolition of money and class, and production for human need, rather than profit, renders national conflict obsolete.

Attacks on our working and living conditions at home are linked to capitalist preparations for war abroad. As such, the defence of our conditions and opposition to war are an important start. But this has to translate into working-class organisation and revolutionary consciousness. Those of us who recognise the real interests of our class have to begin the translation.

The above article is taken from the current edition (No. 70) of Aurora, bulletin of the Communist Workers’ Organisation.